The rise of prosociality in fiction preceded democratic revolutions in Early Modern Europe.

The English and French Revolutions represent a turning point in history, marking the beginning of the modern rise of democracy. Recent advances in cultural evolution have put forward the idea that the early modern revolutions may be the product of a long-term psychological shift, from hierarchical and dominance-based interactions to democratic and trust-based relationships. In this study, we tested this hypothesis by analyzing theater plays during the early modern period in England and France. We found an increase in cooperation-related words over time relative to dominance-related words in both countries. Furthermore, we found that the accelerated rise of cooperation-related words preceded both the English Civil War (1642) and the French Revolution (1789). Finally, we found that rising per capita gross domestic product (GDPpc) generally led to an increase in cooperation-related words. These results highlight the likely role of long-term psychological and economic changes in explaining the rise of early modern democracies.

Economic development in Puerto Rico after US annexation: Anthropometric evidence.

This paper considers economic development in Puerto Rico following its annexation by the United States in 1898, a watershed moment in the history of the island and the pinnacle of American imperialism in Latin America. Drawing on data from three surveys, I show that male height in Puerto Rico increased at more than twice the average rate for Latin America and the Caribbean between 1890 and 1940. I also show that Puerto Ricans at mid-century were among the tallest Latin Americans outside of Argentina and Uruguay. The evidence supports the conclusion that conditions improved substantially after US annexation, in contrast to the prevailing view in the literature.

Height development of men and women from China, South Korea, and Taiwan during the rapid economic transformation period of the 1960s-1980s.

We study height trends among Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese groups during the rapid economic growth period of the 1960s to the 1980s. Heights rose strongly as income grew. Did rapid income growth also cause a decline in gender inequality? Or did it rise because the gains were unevenly distributed? Gender inequality is particularly interesting given the traditionally strong son preference in the region. For mainland China, we find that gender inequality was relatively modest in the pre-reform period (before the 1980s). Especially in comparison to the early 20th century, female heights grew faster than male heights. In contrast, the 1980s transition period to an economic system with market elements was characterized by increasing gender inequality in China. This was the case to an even greater extent in South Korea, where gender dimorphism noticeably increased during the 1980s, paralleling a similar increase in sex-selective abortions. Moreover, we also study other inequality patterns in the three countries, focusing on socioeconomic, regional, and educational differences between groups.

Shrinking in a growing economy is not so puzzling after all.

Bodenhorn, Guinnane, and Mroz (2017) argue that the diminution of heights during the Industrial Revolution and in the Antebellum U.S. is an artefact of the biased nature of the samples analyzed. We demonstrate that it would be an unfathomable coincidence if men and women all self-selected into scores of completely independent samples in such a way as to bias them in the identical direction. Instead, wWe show that BGM's periodization is flawed and that their statistical models are misspecified, because they fail to consider the extent to which they introduce severe multicollinearity into their regressions. In addition, they fail to specify how they selected the samples they included in their analysis. In contrast, we argue that the economic transition from a predominantly agricultural to an increasingly industrial society was not a smooth process and lags in adjustment led to nutritional stresses. Height of a typical man in the U.S. decreased by 0.75 inches at a time when incomes were growing at a rate of 1.2% per annum. The developing human body of children and youth was sensitive enough to these nutritional stresses to register their effect better than monetary measures could. While nutritional status did decline during the Industrial Revolution in Europe and at the onset of modern economic in the U.S., by the second half of the 19th century agricultural productivity caught up with the increased demand for foodstuffs and height reversals became a rarity. Thus, although markets adjusted, they did not do so instantaneously. Consequently, physical stature declined during this adjustment process although the wealthy were shielded from the increased price of nutrients. So, the divergence in average incomes and average heights at the threshold of the modern age is not so puzzling after all.

Health and economic development since 1900.

The 20th century has brought unprecedented gains in health. While these have improved citizens' lives worldwide, progress has been uneven and have in turn led to substantial cross-country health inequalities. This article looks at the effects of these inequalities on between-country economic inequality since 1900 using a level accounting framework that includes life expectancy as an important part of human capital besides education. The main results show that health has been a historically important source of cross-country income variation. In 1900 and 1955, differences in life expectancy accounted for almost 20 percent and a quarter of between-country income inequality. In addition, I find that the reduction of cross-country health differentials between mid-20th century and 1990 was an important source of income convergence. In a counterfactual exercise, I show that between-country income inequality would have been almost 20 percent higher nowadays, had the process of health convergence after 1955 not taken place. Finally, I find that the relative importance of health for income levels has stayed constant in the last three decades due to a deceleration in the rate of health convergence.

Religious change preceded economic change in the 20th century.

The decline in the everyday importance of religion with economic development is a well-known correlation, but which phenomenon comes first? Using unsupervised factor analysis and a birth cohort approach to create a retrospective time series, we present 100-year time series of secularization in different nations, derived from recent global values surveys, which we compare by decade to historical gross domestic product figures in those nations. We find evidence that a rise in secularization generally has preceded economic growth over the past century. Our multilevel, time-lagged regressions also indicate that tolerance for individual rights predicted 20th century economic growth even better than secularization. These findings hold when we control for education and shared cultural heritage.

Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

Intervention mapping to address social and economic factors impacting indigenous people's health in Suriname's interior region.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found that while internationally financed economic development projects reduced poverty when measured in terms of per capita GDP, they also caused indigenous people to become disassociated, impoverished and alienated minorities whose health status has declined to unacceptable lows when measured in terms of mercury poisoning and the burgeoning rate of suicide. In this study, we developed a needs assessment and a policy-oriented causal diagram to determine whether the impaired health of the people in this region was at least partially due to the role the country has played within the global economy. Specifically, could the health and well-being of indigenous people in Suriname be understood in terms of the foreign investment programs and economic development policies traceable to the Inter-American Development Bank's Suriname Land Management Project. METHODS: Interviews took place from 2004 through 2015 involving stakeholders with an interest in public health and economic development. A policy-oriented causal diagram was created to model a complex community health system and weave together a wide range of ideas and views captured during the interview process. RESULTS: Converting land and resources held by indigenous people into private ownership has created an active market for land, increased investment and productivity, and reduced poverty when measured in terms of per capita GDP. However, it has also caused indigenous people to become disassociated, impoverished and alienated minorities whose health status has declined to unacceptable lows. While the effects of economic development programs on the health of vulnerable indigenous communities are clear, the governance response is not. The governance response appeared to be determined less by the urgency of the public health issue or by the compelling logic of an appropriate response, and more by competing economic interests and the exercise of power. CONCLUSION: The health and well-being of the indigenous Wayana in Suriname's interior region is at least partially due to the role the country has played within the global economy. Specifically, the health and well-being of indigenous people in Suriname can be understood to be a result of foreign development bank-funded projects that drive the government of Suriname to trade land and natural resources on the global market to manage their country's balance of payments.

A Road Not Taken: Economists, Historians of Science, and the Making of the Bowman Report.

This essay investigates a hitherto-unexamined collaboration between two of the founders of modern history of science, Henry Guerlac and I. Bernard Cohen, and two economists, Paul Samuelson and Rupert Maclaurin. The arena in which these two disciplines came together was the Bowman Committee, one of the committees that prepared material for Vannevar Bush's Science­The Endless Frontier. The essay shows how their collaboration helped to shape the committee's recommendations, in which different models of science confronted each other. It then shows how, despite this success, the basis for long-term collaboration of economists and historians of science disappeared, because the resulting linear model of science and technology separated the study of scientific and economic progress into noncommunicating boxes .

Medicine, Empires, and Ethics in Colonial Africa.

This essay examines the history of European empire building and health work in sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on four patterns that shed light on the ethics of outside interventions: (1) the epidemiological and bodily harms caused by conquest and economic development; (2) the uneven and inadequate health infrastructures established during the colonial era, including certain iatrogenic consequences; (3) the ethical ambiguities and transgressions of colonial research and treatment campaigns; and (4) the concerted and inadvertent efforts to undermine African healing practices, which were not always commensurable with introduced medical techniques. This kind of historical analysis helps us home in on different kinds of ethical problems that have grown out of past asymmetries of power-between people, professions, states, and institutions-that shape the nature of international health systems to this day.

Biological Conditions and Economic Development: Nineteenth-Century Stature on the U.S. Great Plains.

Average stature is now a well-accepted measure of material and economic well-being in development studies when traditional measures are sparse or unreliable, but little work has been done on the biological conditions for individuals on the nineteenth-century U.S. Great Plains. Records of 14,427 inmates from the Nebraska state prison are used to examine the relationship between stature and economic conditions. Statures of both black and white prisoners in Nebraska increased through time, indicating that biological conditions improved as Nebraska's output market and agricultural sectors developed. The effect of rural environments on stature is illustrated by the fact that farm laborers were taller than common laborers. Urbanization and industrialization had significant impacts on stature, and proximity to trade routes and waterways was inversely related to stature.

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

The height gap in 19th-century America: net-nutritional advantage of the elite increased at the onset of modern economic growth.

We present evidence on the 19th-century trend in the height of male US passport applicants. These men represent a much wealthier segment of contemporary society than found in most stature samples previously analyzed. The height trend among the wealthy is much more robust in comparison to the average population that experienced a decline in stature. The resulting increase in the 'height gap'--by roughly 1 in. between cohorts born around 1820 and 1860--is in congruence with evidence on rising wealth inequality and the notion of dietary change in antebellum America.

Global health and development: conceptualizing health between economic growth and environmental sustainability.

After World War II, health was firmly integrated into the discourse about national development. Transition theories portrayed health improvements as part of an overall development pattern based on economic growth as modeled by the recent history of industrialization in high-income countries. In the 1970s, an increasing awareness of the environmental degradation caused by industrialization challenged the conventional model of development. Gradually, it became clear that health improvements depended on poverty-reduction strategies including industrialization. Industrialization, in turn, risked aggravating environmental degradation with its negative effects on public health. Thus, public health in low-income countries threatened to suffer from lack of economic development as well as from the results of global economic development. Similarly, demands of developing countries risked being trapped between calls for global wealth redistribution, a political impossibility, and calls for unrestricted material development, which, in a world of finite land, water, air, energy, and resources, increasingly looked like a physical impossibility, too. Various international bodies, including the WHO, the Brundtland Commission, and the World Bank, tried to capture the problem and solution strategies in development theories. Broadly conceived, two models have emerged: a "localist model," which analyzes national health data and advocates growth policies with a strong focus on poverty reduction, and a "globalist" model, based on global health data, which calls for growth optimization, rather than maximization. Both models have focused on different types of health burdens and have received support from different institutions. In a nutshell, the health discourse epitomized a larger controversy regarding competing visions of development.

From political economy to sociology: Francis Galton and the social-scientific origins of eugenics.

Having coined the word 'eugenics' and inspired leading biologists and statisticians of the early twentieth century, Francis Galton is often studied for his contributions to modern statistical biology. However, whilst documenting this part of his work, historians have frequently neglected crucial aspects of what motivated Galton to establish his eugenics research programme. Arguing that his work was shaped more by social than by biological science, this paper addresses these oversights by tracing the development of Galton's programme, from its roots in a debate about political economy to his appeals for it to be taken up by sociologists. In so doing, the paper not only returns Galton's ideas to their original context but also provides a reason to reflect on the place of the social sciences in history-of-science scholarship.